Final tracked odds
As of September 16, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.9%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Economy · tracked since July 12, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 16, 2026
0.9%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 15 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.9% | 0.9% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | 0.9% |
| 2026-09-15 | 0.9% |
| 2026-09-14 | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.7% |
| 2026-09-12 | 0.5% |
| 2026-09-11 | 0.9% |
| 2026-09-10 | 0.9% |
| 2026-09-09 | 0.9% |
| 2026-09-08 | 0.5% |
| 2026-09-07 | 0.5% |
| 2026-07-31 | 2% |
| 2026-07-14 | 0.7% |
| 2026-07-13 | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-12 | 1.1% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 16, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.9%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 14 tracked days the odds held near 1.1%, ending at 0.9% on September 16, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting” for 14 days, since July 12, 2026. As of September 16, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.9%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 1.1% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 16, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.