Today’s odds
As of July 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Economy · tracked since July 12, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 14 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.7% | 2% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 2% |
| 2026-07-14 | 0.7% |
| 2026-07-13 | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-12 | 1.1% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting — what are the odds?
- As of July 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting” for 4 days, since July 12, 2026. As of July 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The chance for a yes has held near 1.1% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.