Final tracked odds
As of September 10, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 32%.
▲ 8 since the previous update. ▲ 8 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Economy · tracked since July 22, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 10, 2026
32%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 22 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 24% | 32% | ▲ 8 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | 32% |
| 2026-08-22 | 24% |
| 2026-08-21 | 24% |
| 2026-08-20 | 24% |
| 2026-08-17 | 24% |
| 2026-08-16 | 24% |
| 2026-08-15 | 24% |
| 2026-08-14 | 24% |
| 2026-08-13 | 24% |
| 2026-08-12 | 24% |
| 2026-08-11 | 24% |
| 2026-08-10 | 24% |
| 2026-08-09 | 24% |
| 2026-08-08 | 24% |
| 2026-08-07 | 24% |
| 2026-08-06 | 22% |
| 2026-08-05 | 22% |
| 2026-08-04 | 22% |
| 2026-08-02 | 22% |
| 2026-07-26 | 30% |
| 2026-07-25 | 30% |
| 2026-07-24 | 32% |
| 2026-07-23 | 32% |
| 2026-07-22 | 30% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 10, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 32%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 24 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 30% on July 22, 2026 to 32% on September 10, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 24 tracked days the odds ranged between 22% and 32%. The final reading of 32% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting” for 24 days, since July 22, 2026. As of September 10, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 32%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 30% to 32%, ranging between 22% and 32% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 10, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.