Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 6%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since July 21, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
6%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 6% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 6% |
| 2026-10-11 | 6% |
| 2026-10-10 | 6% |
| 2026-10-09 | 7% |
| 2026-10-08 | 8% |
| 2026-10-07 | 7% |
| 2026-10-06 | 7% |
| 2026-10-05 | 7% |
| 2026-10-04 | 7% |
| 2026-10-03 | 7% |
| 2026-10-02 | 7% |
| 2026-10-01 | 7% |
| 2026-08-12 | 6% |
| 2026-08-11 | 6% |
| 2026-08-10 | 6% |
| 2026-08-09 | 6% |
| 2026-08-08 | 5% |
| 2026-08-07 | 6% |
| 2026-08-06 | 6% |
| 2026-08-05 | 5% |
| 2026-08-04 | 4% |
| 2026-08-03 | 4% |
| 2026-08-02 | 5% |
| 2026-08-01 | 6% |
| 2026-07-31 | 4% |
| 2026-07-30 | 6% |
| 2026-07-29 | 7% |
| 2026-07-27 | 6% |
| 2026-07-22 | 6% |
| 2026-07-21 | 9% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31 — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 30 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 9% on July 21, 2026 to 6% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 3 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31” for 30 days, since July 21, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 6%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 9% to 6%, ranging between 4% and 9% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.