Final tracked odds
As of November 1, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 13%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 21, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 1, 2026
13%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 9 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | 13% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | 13% |
| 2026-10-09 | 14% |
| 2026-09-05 | 10% |
| 2026-09-04 | 10% |
| 2026-07-29 | 32% |
| 2026-07-28 | 33% |
| 2026-07-26 | 30% |
| 2026-07-25 | 29% |
| 2026-07-24 | 30% |
| 2026-07-23 | 28% |
| 2026-07-22 | 30% |
| 2026-07-21 | 32% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 1, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 13%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 12 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 32% on July 21, 2026 to 13% on November 1, 2026 — a change of 19 points.
- Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 12 tracked days the odds ranged between 10% and 33%. The final reading of 13% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026” for 12 days, since July 21, 2026. As of November 1, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 13%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 32% to 13%, ranging between 10% and 33% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 1, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.