Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 5%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since July 13, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
5%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 5% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 5% |
| 2026-10-11 | 8% |
| 2026-10-10 | 7% |
| 2026-10-08 | 7% |
| 2026-10-06 | 7% |
| 2026-10-05 | 7% |
| 2026-10-04 | 6% |
| 2026-10-03 | 6% |
| 2026-10-02 | 6% |
| 2026-10-01 | 6% |
| 2026-09-30 | 6% |
| 2026-09-29 | 6% |
| 2026-09-28 | 6% |
| 2026-09-25 | 6% |
| 2026-09-24 | 6% |
| 2026-09-23 | 7% |
| 2026-09-22 | 7% |
| 2026-09-21 | 7% |
| 2026-09-09 | 6% |
| 2026-09-03 | 6% |
| 2026-09-02 | 6% |
| 2026-09-01 | 6% |
| 2026-08-18 | 6% |
| 2026-08-17 | 6% |
| 2026-08-16 | 6% |
| 2026-08-15 | 6% |
| 2026-08-14 | 5% |
| 2026-08-13 | 5% |
| 2026-08-12 | 5% |
| 2026-08-11 | 5% |
| 2026-08-10 | 5% |
| 2026-08-09 | 5% |
| 2026-08-08 | 5% |
| 2026-08-07 | 5% |
| 2026-08-06 | 5% |
| 2026-08-05 | 5% |
| 2026-08-04 | 5% |
| 2026-08-03 | 7% |
| 2026-08-02 | 7% |
| 2026-08-01 | 7% |
| 2026-07-31 | 7% |
| 2026-07-30 | 7% |
| 2026-07-29 | 7% |
| 2026-07-28 | 7% |
| 2026-07-27 | 7% |
| 2026-07-18 | 4% |
| 2026-07-17 | 5% |
| 2026-07-16 | 4% |
| 2026-07-15 | 4% |
| 2026-07-14 | 4% |
| 2026-07-13 | 5% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31 — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 5%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31 — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 51 tracked days the odds held near 5%, ending at 5% on October 12, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31” for 51 days, since July 13, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 5%. The chance for a yes has held near 5%, ranging between 4% and 8% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.