Today’s odds
As of August 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 7%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since July 13, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
7%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | 7% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | 7% |
| 2026-08-02 | 7% |
| 2026-08-01 | 7% |
| 2026-07-31 | 7% |
| 2026-07-30 | 7% |
| 2026-07-29 | 7% |
| 2026-07-28 | 7% |
| 2026-07-27 | 7% |
| 2026-07-18 | 4% |
| 2026-07-17 | 5% |
| 2026-07-16 | 4% |
| 2026-07-15 | 4% |
| 2026-07-14 | 4% |
| 2026-07-13 | 5% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31 — what are the odds?
- As of August 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 7%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 14 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 5% on July 13, 2026 to 7% on August 3, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31” for 14 days, since July 13, 2026. As of August 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 7%. The chance for a yes has risen from 5% to 7%, ranging between 4% and 7% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.