Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 42%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 33 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since September 6, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
42%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 42% | 42% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 42% |
| 2026-10-11 | 42% |
| 2026-10-10 | 42% |
| 2026-10-09 | 42% |
| 2026-10-08 | 42% |
| 2026-10-07 | 42% |
| 2026-10-06 | 42% |
| 2026-09-12 | 10% |
| 2026-09-08 | 8% |
| 2026-09-07 | 8% |
| 2026-09-06 | 9% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 42%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 11 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 9% on September 6, 2026 to 42% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 33 points.
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 11 tracked days the odds ranged between 8% and 42%. The current reading of 42% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026” for 11 days, since September 6, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 42%. The chance for a yes has risen from 9% to 42%, ranging between 8% and 42% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.