Today’s odds
As of August 9, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 8%.
▲ 4 since the previous update. ▼ 62 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 16, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 16, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
8%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 7 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Aug 16, 2026 | 4% | 8% | ▲ 4 |
Full history table
| Date | Before Aug 16, 2026 |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | 8% |
| 2026-08-07 | 4% |
| 2026-08-04 | 54% |
| 2026-08-03 | 86% |
| 2026-08-02 | 70% |
| 2026-08-01 | 70% |
| 2026-07-31 | 64% |
| 2026-07-30 | 60% |
| 2026-07-29 | 52% |
| 2026-07-28 | 46% |
| 2026-07-27 | 50% |
| 2026-07-26 | 58% |
| 2026-07-25 | 63% |
| 2026-07-24 | 65% |
| 2026-07-23 | 67% |
| 2026-07-22 | 64% |
| 2026-07-21 | 48% |
| 2026-07-20 | 50% |
| 2026-07-19 | 49% |
| 2026-07-18 | 57% |
| 2026-07-17 | 48% |
| 2026-07-16 | 64% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 16, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of August 9, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 8%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 16, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 22 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 64% on July 16, 2026 to 8% on August 9, 2026 — a change of 56 points.
- Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 16, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 22 tracked days the odds ranged between 4% and 86%. The current reading of 8% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 16, 2026” for 22 days, since July 16, 2026. As of August 9, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 8%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 64% to 8%, ranging between 4% and 86% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.