Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 63%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?
Everything Else · tracked since July 12, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
63%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 63% | 63% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 63% |
| 2026-10-11 | 63% |
| 2026-10-10 | 63% |
| 2026-10-09 | 63% |
| 2026-10-08 | 63% |
| 2026-10-07 | 64% |
| 2026-10-06 | 64% |
| 2026-10-05 | 64% |
| 2026-10-03 | 64% |
| 2026-10-02 | 66% |
| 2026-10-01 | 64% |
| 2026-08-10 | 58% |
| 2026-08-09 | 58% |
| 2026-08-08 | 58% |
| 2026-08-07 | 58% |
| 2026-08-06 | 62% |
| 2026-08-05 | 60% |
| 2026-08-04 | 60% |
| 2026-08-03 | 60% |
| 2026-08-02 | 60% |
| 2026-08-01 | 60% |
| 2026-07-20 | 63% |
| 2026-07-12 | 63% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 63%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 23 tracked days the odds held near 63%, ending at 63% on October 12, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
- OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 23 tracked days the odds ranged between 58% and 66%. The current reading of 63% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T” for 23 days, since July 12, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 63%. The chance for a yes has held near 63%, ranging between 58% and 66% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.