Final tracked odds
As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 72%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 4, 2026
72%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 73% | 72% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 72% |
| 2026-10-03 | 73% |
| 2026-10-02 | 74% |
| 2026-10-01 | 74% |
| 2026-09-30 | 74% |
| 2026-09-29 | 67% |
| 2026-09-28 | 64% |
| 2026-09-27 | 68% |
| 2026-09-26 | 67% |
| 2026-09-25 | 56% |
| 2026-09-24 | 72% |
| 2026-09-23 | 72% |
| 2026-09-22 | 78% |
| 2026-09-21 | 78% |
| 2026-09-20 | 79% |
| 2026-09-19 | 84% |
| 2026-09-18 | 84% |
| 2026-09-17 | 84% |
| 2026-09-16 | 84% |
| 2026-09-15 | 84% |
| 2026-09-14 | 93% |
| 2026-09-13 | 93% |
| 2026-09-12 | 94% |
| 2026-09-11 | 94% |
| 2026-09-10 | 94% |
| 2026-09-09 | 94% |
| 2026-09-08 | 94% |
| 2026-09-07 | 94% |
| 2026-09-06 | 88% |
| 2026-09-05 | 87% |
| 2026-09-04 | 87% |
| 2026-09-03 | 86% |
| 2026-09-02 | 84% |
| 2026-09-01 | 76% |
| 2026-08-31 | 76% |
| 2026-08-30 | 76% |
| 2026-08-29 | 76% |
| 2026-08-28 | 76% |
| 2026-08-27 | 76% |
| 2026-08-26 | 76% |
| 2026-08-25 | 76% |
| 2026-08-24 | 76% |
| 2026-08-23 | 76% |
| 2026-08-22 | 76% |
| 2026-08-21 | 76% |
| 2026-08-20 | 76% |
| 2026-08-19 | 76% |
| 2026-08-18 | 76% |
| 2026-08-17 | 76% |
| 2026-08-16 | 76% |
| 2026-08-15 | 76% |
| 2026-08-14 | 75% |
| 2026-08-13 | 76% |
| 2026-08-12 | 72% |
| 2026-08-11 | 72% |
| 2026-08-10 | 72% |
| 2026-08-09 | 72% |
| 2026-08-08 | 72% |
| 2026-08-07 | 72% |
| 2026-08-06 | 72% |
| 2026-08-05 | 72% |
| 2026-08-04 | 72% |
| 2026-08-03 | 72% |
| 2026-08-02 | 72% |
| 2026-07-31 | 72% |
| 2026-07-30 | 72% |
| 2026-07-29 | 72% |
| 2026-07-28 | 72% |
| 2026-07-27 | 74% |
| 2026-07-26 | 74% |
| 2026-07-25 | 74% |
| 2026-07-24 | 74% |
| 2026-07-23 | 74% |
| 2026-07-22 | 74% |
| 2026-07-21 | 73% |
| 2026-07-20 | 72% |
| 2026-07-19 | 72% |
| 2026-07-18 | 72% |
| 2026-07-17 | 72% |
| 2026-07-16 | 72% |
| 2026-07-15 | 72% |
| 2026-07-14 | 72% |
| 2026-07-13 | 72% |
| 2026-07-12 | 72% |
| 2026-07-11 | 72% |
| 2026-07-10 | 72% |
| 2026-07-09 | 72% |
| 2026-07-08 | 72% |
| 2026-07-07 | 73% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 72%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 89 tracked days the odds held near 73%, ending at 72% on October 4, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
- OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 89 tracked days the odds ranged between 56% and 94%. The final reading of 72% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T” for 89 days, since July 7, 2026. As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 72%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 73%, ranging between 56% and 94% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.