Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Israel Katz leads at 0.1%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
0.1%
How the odds have moved
Israel KatzGilad Erdan
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Katz | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| Gilad Erdan | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Israel Katz | Gilad Erdan |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-11 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-10 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-09 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-08 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-07 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-06 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-05 | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-10-04 | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-10-03 | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-10-02 | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-10-01 | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-29 | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-28 | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-27 | — | — |
| 2026-09-26 | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-25 | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-24 | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-23 | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-22 | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-21 | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-19 | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-18 | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-17 | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-16 | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-15 | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-14 | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-11 | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-09-09 | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-26 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-25 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-24 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-23 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-22 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-21 | — | 0.2% |
| 2026-07-20 | — | 0.2% |
| 2026-07-19 | — | — |
| 2026-07-18 | — | — |
| 2026-07-17 | — | — |
| 2026-07-16 | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | — | — |
| 2026-07-14 | — | — |
| 2026-07-13 | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | — | — |
| 2026-07-11 | — | — |
| 2026-07-10 | — | — |
| 2026-07-09 | — | — |
| 2026-07-08 | — | — |
| 2026-07-07 | — | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 28 tracked days the odds held near 0.1%, ending at 0.1% on October 12, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel” for 28 days, since July 7, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, no outcome clears 10% — Israel Katz leads at 0.1%. The chance for the leading outcome has held near 0.1% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.