The Morning Line

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET

0.7%

Today’s odds

As of July 29, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Ionuț Dumitru leads at 0.7%.

Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Ionuț DumitruAnca DraguDacian CioloșSebastian Burduja
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 13Jul 18Jul 23Jul 29Ionuț Dumitru — Jul 7: 0.5%Ionuț Dumitru — Jul 8: 0.5%Ionuț Dumitru — Jul 9: 0.4%Ionuț Dumitru — Jul 10: 0.7%Ionuț Dumitru — Jul 11: 0.7%Ionuț Dumitru — Jul 12: 0.7%Ionuț Dumitru — Jul 13: 0.7%Ionuț Dumitru — Jul 14: 0.7%Ionuț Dumitru — Jul 15: 0.7%Ionuț Dumitru — Jul 16: 0.7%Ionuț Dumitru — Jul 22: 0.7%Ionuț Dumitru — Jul 23: 0.7%Ionuț Dumitru — Jul 24: 0.7%Ionuț Dumitru — Jul 25: 0.7%Ionuț Dumitru — Jul 26: 0.5%Ionuț Dumitru — Jul 27: 0.6%Ionuț Dumitru — Jul 28: 0.7%Ionuț Dumitru — Jul 29: 0.7%0.7%Anca Dragu — Jul 7: 0.2%Anca Dragu — Jul 8: 0.2%Anca Dragu — Jul 10: 0.4%Anca Dragu — Jul 11: 0.4%Anca Dragu — Jul 12: 0.4%Anca Dragu — Jul 13: 0.4%Anca Dragu — Jul 14: 0.4%Anca Dragu — Jul 15: 0.4%Anca Dragu — Jul 16: 0.4%Anca Dragu — Jul 22: 0.5%Anca Dragu — Jul 23: 0.4%Anca Dragu — Jul 24: 0.4%Anca Dragu — Jul 25: 0.4%Anca Dragu — Jul 26: 0.4%Anca Dragu — Jul 27: 0.4%Anca Dragu — Jul 28: 0.4%Anca Dragu — Jul 29: 0.4%Dacian Cioloș — Jul 12: 0.1%Dacian Cioloș — Jul 13: 0.1%Dacian Cioloș — Jul 15: 0.1%Dacian Cioloș — Jul 20: 0.3%Dacian Cioloș — Jul 21: 0.3%Dacian Cioloș — Jul 22: 0.3%Dacian Cioloș — Jul 23: 0.3%Dacian Cioloș — Jul 24: 0.1%Dacian Cioloș — Jul 27: 0.3%Dacian Cioloș — Jul 29: 0.3%Sebastian Burduja — Jul 12: 0.1%Sebastian Burduja — Jul 13: 0.1%Sebastian Burduja — Jul 14: 0.1%Sebastian Burduja — Jul 15: 0.1%Sebastian Burduja — Jul 16: 0.1%Sebastian Burduja — Jul 20: 0.1%Sebastian Burduja — Jul 21: 0.1%Sebastian Burduja — Jul 22: 0.1%Sebastian Burduja — Jul 23: 0.1%Sebastian Burduja — Jul 24: 0.1%Sebastian Burduja — Jul 27: 0.1%Sebastian Burduja — Jul 28: 0.1%Sebastian Burduja — Jul 29: 0.1%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 28TodayMove
Ionuț Dumitru0.7%0.7%—
Anca Dragu0.4%0.4%—
Dacian Cioloș—0.3%—
Sebastian Burduja0.1%0.1%—
Full history table
DateIonuț DumitruAnca DraguDacian CioloșSebastian Burduja
2026-07-290.7%0.4%0.3%0.1%
2026-07-280.7%0.4%—0.1%
2026-07-270.6%0.4%0.3%0.1%
2026-07-260.5%0.4%——
2026-07-250.7%0.4%——
2026-07-240.7%0.4%0.1%0.1%
2026-07-230.7%0.4%0.3%0.1%
2026-07-220.7%0.5%0.3%0.1%
2026-07-21——0.3%0.1%
2026-07-20——0.3%0.1%
2026-07-19————
2026-07-18————
2026-07-17————
2026-07-160.7%0.4%—0.1%
2026-07-150.7%0.4%0.1%0.1%
2026-07-140.7%0.4%—0.1%
2026-07-130.7%0.4%0.1%0.1%
2026-07-120.7%0.4%0.1%0.1%
2026-07-110.7%0.4%——
2026-07-100.7%0.4%——
2026-07-090.4%———
2026-07-080.5%0.2%——
2026-07-070.5%0.2%——

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Romania — what are the odds?
As of July 29, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 0.7%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Romania — how much have the odds move?
Barely. Across 18 tracked days the odds held near 0.5%, ending at 0.7% on July 29, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Romania” for 18 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, no outcome clears 10% — Ionuț Dumitru leads at 0.7%. The chance for the leading outcome has held near 0.5% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

Related questions

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.