Who will be the next Prime Minister of Serbia — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, September 23, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 58%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Serbia — did the odds go up or down?

Up. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 46% on September 18, 2026 to 58% on September 23, 2026 — a change of 12 points.

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Serbia — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 46% and 58%. The final reading of 58% sits at the top of that range.

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Who will be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Politics · tracked since September 18, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 23, 2026

58%

Final tracked odds

As of September 23, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 58%.

▲ 3 since the previous update. ▲ 12 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Sep 22	Today	Move
Aleksandar Vučić	55%	58%	▲ 3

Full history table

Date	Aleksandar Vučić
2026-09-23	58%
2026-09-22	55%
2026-09-21	52%
2026-09-18	46%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Serbia — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, September 23, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 58%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Serbia — did the odds go up or down?: Up. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 46% on September 18, 2026 to 58% on September 23, 2026 — a change of 12 points.
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Serbia — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 46% and 58%. The final reading of 58% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Serbia” for 4 days, since September 18, 2026. As of September 23, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 58%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 46% to 58%, ranging between 46% and 58% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 23, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.