Politics · tracked since October 6, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
Today’s odds
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
| Outcome | Oct 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Abascal | 2% | 1.4% | — |
| Isabel Díaz Ayuso | — | 0.9% | — |
| Date | Santiago Abascal | Isabel Díaz Ayuso |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 1.4% | 0.9% |
| 2026-10-11 | 2% | — |
| 2026-10-10 | 2% | — |
| 2026-10-08 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-07 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-06 | — | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Spain” for 3 days, since October 6, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, no outcome clears 10% — Santiago Abascal leads at 1.4%. The chance for the leading outcome has held near 2% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.