Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 95%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since October 2, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
95%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 95% | 95% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 95% |
| 2026-10-11 | 95% |
| 2026-10-10 | 95% |
| 2026-10-09 | 95% |
| 2026-10-08 | 95% |
| 2026-10-07 | 95% |
| 2026-10-06 | 95% |
| 2026-10-05 | 95% |
| 2026-10-02 | 97% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 95%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 9 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 97% on October 2, 2026 to 95% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026” for 9 days, since October 2, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 95%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 97% to 95% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.