Will OpenAI release a personal AI agent before Dec 1, 2026 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, October 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 25%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Will OpenAI release a personal AI agent before Dec 1, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 7 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 53% on September 24, 2026 to 25% on October 5, 2026 — a change of 28 points.

Will OpenAI release a personal AI agent before Dec 1, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 7 tracked days the odds ranged between 25% and 81%. The final reading of 25% sits at the bottom of that range.

Will OpenAI release a personal AI agent before Dec 1, 2026?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will OpenAI release a personal AI agent before Dec 1, 2026?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since September 24, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 5, 2026

25%

Final tracked odds

As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 25%.

▼ 43 since the previous update. ▼ 52 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Sep 29	Today	Move
Before Dec 1, 2026	68%	25%	▼ 43

Full history table

Date	Before Dec 1, 2026
2026-10-05	25%
2026-09-29	68%
2026-09-28	78%
2026-09-27	81%
2026-09-26	76%
2026-09-25	54%
2026-09-24	53%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will OpenAI release a personal AI agent before Dec 1, 2026 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, October 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 25%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will OpenAI release a personal AI agent before Dec 1, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 7 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 53% on September 24, 2026 to 25% on October 5, 2026 — a change of 28 points.
Will OpenAI release a personal AI agent before Dec 1, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 7 tracked days the odds ranged between 25% and 81%. The final reading of 25% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will OpenAI release a personal AI agent before Dec 1, 2026” for 7 days, since September 24, 2026. As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 25%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 53% to 25%, ranging between 25% and 81% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.