Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 16, 2026 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, September 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 98%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 16, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?

Up. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 72% on September 2, 2026 to 98% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 26 points.

Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 16, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 72% and 98%. The final reading of 98% sits at the top of that range.

Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 16, 2026?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 16, 2026?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since September 2, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 6, 2026

98%

Final tracked odds

As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 98%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 27 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 98% on September 6, 2026. Before Sep 16, 2026 won.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Sep 4	Today	Move
Before Sep 16, 2026	98%	98%	—

Full history table

Date	Before Sep 16, 2026
2026-09-06	98%
2026-09-04	98%
2026-09-02	72%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 16, 2026 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, September 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 98%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 16, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?: Up. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 72% on September 2, 2026 to 98% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 26 points.
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 16, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 72% and 98%. The final reading of 98% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 16, 2026” for 3 days, since September 2, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 98%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 72% to 98%, ranging between 72% and 98% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 6, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.