Final tracked odds
As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 14%.
▲ 3 since the previous update. ▲ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since August 28, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 6, 2026
14%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 1 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 11% | 14% | ▲ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Before Nov 1, 2026 |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 14% |
| 2026-09-01 | 11% |
| 2026-08-31 | 10% |
| 2026-08-30 | 10% |
| 2026-08-29 | 9% |
| 2026-08-28 | 11% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 14%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 11% on August 28, 2026 to 14% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 3 points.
- Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 9% and 14%. The final reading of 14% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026” for 6 days, since August 28, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 14%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 11% to 14%, ranging between 9% and 14% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 6, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.