Final tracked odds
As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 12%.
▼ 7 since the previous update. ▼ 11 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since September 1, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 5, 2026
12%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 4 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 12% | ▼ 7 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 12% |
| 2026-10-04 | 20% |
| 2026-10-03 | 20% |
| 2026-10-02 | 22% |
| 2026-10-01 | 20% |
| 2026-09-30 | 20% |
| 2026-09-29 | 21% |
| 2026-09-28 | 24% |
| 2026-09-27 | 26% |
| 2026-09-26 | 24% |
| 2026-09-25 | 26% |
| 2026-09-24 | 30% |
| 2026-09-23 | 30% |
| 2026-09-22 | 28% |
| 2026-09-21 | 30% |
| 2026-09-20 | 30% |
| 2026-09-19 | 28% |
| 2026-09-18 | 29% |
| 2026-09-17 | 28% |
| 2026-09-16 | 32% |
| 2026-09-15 | 34% |
| 2026-09-14 | 38% |
| 2026-09-13 | 38% |
| 2026-09-12 | 38% |
| 2026-09-11 | 39% |
| 2026-09-10 | 42% |
| 2026-09-09 | 42% |
| 2026-09-08 | 42% |
| 2026-09-07 | 42% |
| 2026-09-06 | 42% |
| 2026-09-05 | 44% |
| 2026-09-04 | 42% |
| 2026-09-03 | 38% |
| 2026-09-02 | 40% |
| 2026-09-01 | 39% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 12%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 35 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 39% on September 1, 2026 to 12% on October 5, 2026 — a change of 27 points.
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 35 tracked days the odds ranged between 12% and 44%. The final reading of 12% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026” for 35 days, since September 1, 2026. As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 12%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 39% to 12%, ranging between 12% and 44% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.