Final tracked odds
As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 4%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since September 23, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 4, 2026
4%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 4% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 4% |
| 2026-10-03 | 3% |
| 2026-10-02 | 5% |
| 2026-10-01 | 5% |
| 2026-09-30 | 3% |
| 2026-09-29 | 2% |
| 2026-09-28 | 2% |
| 2026-09-26 | 2% |
| 2026-09-25 | 2% |
| 2026-09-24 | 4% |
| 2026-09-23 | 4% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026 — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 11 tracked days the odds held near 4%, ending at 4% on October 4, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026” for 11 days, since September 23, 2026. As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 4%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 4%, ranging between 2% and 5% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.