Final tracked odds
As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.9%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 14, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 30, 2026
0.9%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 29 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.7% | 0.9% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 0.9% |
| 2026-09-29 | 0.7% |
| 2026-09-28 | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-27 | 1.3% |
| 2026-09-26 | 2% |
| 2026-09-25 | 2% |
| 2026-09-24 | 1.4% |
| 2026-09-23 | 4% |
| 2026-09-22 | 4% |
| 2026-09-21 | 4% |
| 2026-09-20 | 4% |
| 2026-09-19 | 4% |
| 2026-09-18 | 6% |
| 2026-09-17 | 6% |
| 2026-09-16 | 6% |
| 2026-09-15 | 7% |
| 2026-09-14 | 7% |
| 2026-09-13 | 7% |
| 2026-09-12 | 7% |
| 2026-09-11 | 8% |
| 2026-09-10 | 6% |
| 2026-09-09 | 6% |
| 2026-09-08 | 8% |
| 2026-09-07 | 9% |
| 2026-09-06 | 9% |
| 2026-09-05 | 10% |
| 2026-09-04 | 10% |
| 2026-09-03 | 10% |
| 2026-09-02 | 10% |
| 2026-09-01 | 10% |
| 2026-08-19 | 24% |
| 2026-08-18 | 11% |
| 2026-08-17 | 13% |
| 2026-08-16 | 11% |
| 2026-08-14 | 14% |
| 2026-08-13 | 14% |
| 2026-08-12 | 18% |
| 2026-08-11 | 18% |
| 2026-08-10 | 20% |
| 2026-08-09 | 24% |
| 2026-08-08 | 12% |
| 2026-08-07 | 19% |
| 2026-08-06 | 10% |
| 2026-08-05 | 9% |
| 2026-08-04 | 10% |
| 2026-08-03 | 9% |
| 2026-08-02 | 9% |
| 2026-08-01 | 9% |
| 2026-07-15 | 12% |
| 2026-07-14 | 8% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 30, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.9%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 50 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 8% on July 14, 2026 to 0.9% on September 30, 2026 — a change of 7 points.
- Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 50 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.7% and 24%. The final reading of 0.9% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026” for 50 days, since July 14, 2026. As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.9%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 8% to 0.9%, ranging between 0.7% and 24% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 30, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.