Today’s odds
As of August 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 10%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 14, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
10%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | 10% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | 10% |
| 2026-08-05 | 9% |
| 2026-08-04 | 10% |
| 2026-08-03 | 9% |
| 2026-08-02 | 9% |
| 2026-08-01 | 9% |
| 2026-07-15 | 12% |
| 2026-07-14 | 8% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of August 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 10%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 8 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 8% on July 14, 2026 to 10% on August 6, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026” for 8 days, since July 14, 2026. As of August 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 10%. The chance for a yes has risen from 8% to 10%, ranging between 8% and 12% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.