Final tracked odds
As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 30%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 22 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 31, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 4, 2026
30%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 31% | 30% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 30% |
| 2026-10-03 | 31% |
| 2026-10-02 | 33% |
| 2026-10-01 | 34% |
| 2026-09-30 | 34% |
| 2026-09-29 | 34% |
| 2026-09-28 | 34% |
| 2026-08-18 | 52% |
| 2026-08-17 | 56% |
| 2026-08-16 | 51% |
| 2026-08-15 | 50% |
| 2026-08-14 | 54% |
| 2026-08-13 | 55% |
| 2026-08-12 | 48% |
| 2026-08-11 | 48% |
| 2026-08-10 | 51% |
| 2026-08-09 | 42% |
| 2026-08-08 | 42% |
| 2026-08-07 | 43% |
| 2026-08-03 | 41% |
| 2026-07-31 | 42% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 30%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 21 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 42% on July 31, 2026 to 30% on October 4, 2026 — a change of 12 points.
- Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 21 tracked days the odds ranged between 30% and 56%. The final reading of 30% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026” for 21 days, since July 31, 2026. As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 30%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 42% to 30%, ranging between 30% and 56% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.