Final tracked odds
As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 16%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since September 1, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 4, 2026
16%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 16% | 16% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 16% |
| 2026-10-03 | 16% |
| 2026-10-02 | 16% |
| 2026-10-01 | 16% |
| 2026-09-30 | 16% |
| 2026-09-29 | 18% |
| 2026-09-28 | 18% |
| 2026-09-26 | 18% |
| 2026-09-25 | 18% |
| 2026-09-24 | 18% |
| 2026-09-16 | 20% |
| 2026-09-07 | 30% |
| 2026-09-06 | 29% |
| 2026-09-05 | 30% |
| 2026-09-04 | 30% |
| 2026-09-03 | 30% |
| 2026-09-02 | 28% |
| 2026-09-01 | 29% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 16%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 18 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 29% on September 1, 2026 to 16% on October 4, 2026 — a change of 13 points.
- Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 18 tracked days the odds ranged between 16% and 30%. The final reading of 16% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026” for 18 days, since September 1, 2026. As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 16%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 29% to 16%, ranging between 16% and 30% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.