Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, October 11, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026 — how much did the odds move?

Barely. Across 12 tracked days the odds held near 0.1%, ending at 0.1% on October 11, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.

Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since August 4, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 11, 2026

0.1%

Final tracked odds

As of October 11, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.1%.

Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Oct 10	Today	Move
Yes	0.1%	0.1%	—

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-10-11	0.1%
2026-10-10	0.1%
2026-10-08	0.1%
2026-10-06	0.1%
2026-10-05	0.1%
2026-10-04	0.1%
2026-10-03	0.1%
2026-10-02	0.1%
2026-10-01	0.1%
2026-08-06	0.1%
2026-08-05	0.1%
2026-08-04	0.1%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, October 11, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026 — how much did the odds move?: Barely. Across 12 tracked days the odds held near 0.1%, ending at 0.1% on October 11, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026” for 12 days, since August 4, 2026. As of October 11, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.1%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 0.1% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 11, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.