Final tracked odds
As of September 20, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.4%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 21, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 20, 2026
0.4%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 15 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.5% | 0.4% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-15 | 0.5% |
| 2026-09-14 | 0.7% |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-12 | 0.9% |
| 2026-09-11 | 0.9% |
| 2026-09-10 | 0.9% |
| 2026-09-09 | 0.9% |
| 2026-09-08 | 0.9% |
| 2026-09-07 | 0.9% |
| 2026-09-06 | 0.9% |
| 2026-09-05 | 0.9% |
| 2026-09-04 | 1.0% |
| 2026-09-03 | 0.9% |
| 2026-09-02 | 0.9% |
| 2026-09-01 | 1.0% |
| 2026-08-31 | 1.2% |
| 2026-08-30 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-29 | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-28 | 0.8% |
| 2026-08-27 | 1.2% |
| 2026-08-26 | 1.4% |
| 2026-08-25 | 1.5% |
| 2026-08-24 | 1.4% |
| 2026-08-23 | 1.5% |
| 2026-08-22 | 2% |
| 2026-08-21 | 2% |
| 2026-08-20 | 2% |
| 2026-08-19 | 2% |
| 2026-08-18 | 2% |
| 2026-08-17 | 2% |
| 2026-08-16 | 2% |
| 2026-08-15 | 2% |
| 2026-08-14 | 2% |
| 2026-08-13 | 2% |
| 2026-08-12 | 3% |
| 2026-08-11 | 2% |
| 2026-08-10 | 2% |
| 2026-08-09 | 2% |
| 2026-08-08 | 2% |
| 2026-08-07 | 4% |
| 2026-08-06 | 4% |
| 2026-08-05 | 4% |
| 2026-08-04 | 4% |
| 2026-08-03 | 3% |
| 2026-08-02 | 3% |
| 2026-08-01 | 3% |
| 2026-07-31 | 4% |
| 2026-07-30 | 4% |
| 2026-07-29 | 4% |
| 2026-07-28 | 6% |
| 2026-07-27 | 8% |
| 2026-07-24 | 6% |
| 2026-07-23 | 6% |
| 2026-07-22 | 6% |
| 2026-07-21 | 6% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 20, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 56 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 6% on July 21, 2026 to 0.4% on September 20, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 56 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.4% and 8%. The final reading of 0.4% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026” for 56 days, since July 21, 2026. As of September 20, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.4%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 6% to 0.4%, ranging between 0.4% and 8% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 20, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.