Today’s odds
As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 4%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 21, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
4%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 28 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 4% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 4% |
| 2026-07-28 | 6% |
| 2026-07-27 | 8% |
| 2026-07-24 | 6% |
| 2026-07-23 | 6% |
| 2026-07-22 | 6% |
| 2026-07-21 | 6% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of July 29, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 7 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 6% on July 21, 2026 to 4% on July 29, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026” for 7 days, since July 21, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 4%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 6% to 4%, ranging between 4% and 8% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.