Final tracked odds
As of September 20, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 8%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since July 27, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 20, 2026
8%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 19 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 8% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 8% |
| 2026-09-19 | 8% |
| 2026-09-18 | 6% |
| 2026-09-17 | 6% |
| 2026-09-16 | 6% |
| 2026-09-15 | 6% |
| 2026-09-14 | 6% |
| 2026-09-13 | 6% |
| 2026-09-12 | 6% |
| 2026-09-11 | 6% |
| 2026-09-10 | 6% |
| 2026-09-09 | 6% |
| 2026-09-08 | 6% |
| 2026-09-07 | 6% |
| 2026-09-06 | 6% |
| 2026-09-05 | 6% |
| 2026-09-04 | 6% |
| 2026-09-03 | 6% |
| 2026-09-02 | 8% |
| 2026-09-01 | 8% |
| 2026-08-29 | 8% |
| 2026-08-28 | 8% |
| 2026-08-27 | 8% |
| 2026-08-26 | 8% |
| 2026-08-21 | 6% |
| 2026-08-20 | 6% |
| 2026-08-19 | 6% |
| 2026-08-18 | 6% |
| 2026-08-17 | 6% |
| 2026-08-16 | 6% |
| 2026-08-15 | 6% |
| 2026-08-14 | 6% |
| 2026-08-13 | 6% |
| 2026-08-12 | 6% |
| 2026-08-11 | 6% |
| 2026-08-10 | 6% |
| 2026-08-09 | 6% |
| 2026-08-08 | 6% |
| 2026-08-07 | 7% |
| 2026-08-06 | 6% |
| 2026-08-05 | 6% |
| 2026-08-04 | 6% |
| 2026-08-03 | 6% |
| 2026-08-02 | 8% |
| 2026-08-01 | 8% |
| 2026-07-31 | 8% |
| 2026-07-30 | 8% |
| 2026-07-29 | 8% |
| 2026-07-28 | 6% |
| 2026-07-27 | 10% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 20, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 8%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 50 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 10% on July 27, 2026 to 8% on September 20, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027” for 50 days, since July 27, 2026. As of September 20, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 8%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 10% to 8%, ranging between 6% and 10% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 20, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.