Will SCOTUS permit Missouri's HB 1 House map — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, September 8, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 20%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Will SCOTUS permit Missouri's HB 1 House map — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 25% on September 4, 2026 to 20% on September 8, 2026 — a change of 5 points.

Will SCOTUS permit Missouri's HB 1 House map — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 20% and 26%. The final reading of 20% sits inside that range.

Will SCOTUS permit Missouri's HB 1 House map?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will SCOTUS permit Missouri's HB 1 House map?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since September 4, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 8, 2026

20%

Final tracked odds

As of September 8, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 20%.

▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Sep 7	Today	Move
Before Nov 3, 2026	21%	20%	▼ 1

Full history table

Date	Before Nov 3, 2026
2026-09-08	20%
2026-09-07	21%
2026-09-06	20%
2026-09-05	26%
2026-09-04	25%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will SCOTUS permit Missouri's HB 1 House map — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, September 8, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 20%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will SCOTUS permit Missouri's HB 1 House map — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 25% on September 4, 2026 to 20% on September 8, 2026 — a change of 5 points.
Will SCOTUS permit Missouri's HB 1 House map — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 20% and 26%. The final reading of 20% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will SCOTUS permit Missouri's HB 1 House map” for 5 days, since September 4, 2026. As of September 8, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 20%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 25% to 20%, ranging between 20% and 26% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 8, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.