Final tracked odds
As of August 17, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 6%.
▼ 9 since the previous update. ▼ 20 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Sep 1, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 31, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 17, 2026
6%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 16 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 14% | 6% | ▼ 9 |
Full history table
| Date | Before Sep 1, 2026 |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | 6% |
| 2026-08-16 | 14% |
| 2026-08-14 | 24% |
| 2026-08-13 | 26% |
| 2026-08-12 | 28% |
| 2026-08-11 | 26% |
| 2026-08-10 | 26% |
| 2026-08-09 | 26% |
| 2026-08-08 | 28% |
| 2026-08-07 | 28% |
| 2026-08-06 | 34% |
| 2026-08-05 | 29% |
| 2026-08-04 | 30% |
| 2026-08-03 | 40% |
| 2026-08-02 | 40% |
| 2026-08-01 | 38% |
| 2026-07-31 | 42% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Sep 1, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 17, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Sep 1, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 17 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 42% on July 31, 2026 to 6% on August 17, 2026 — a change of 36 points.
- Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Sep 1, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 17 tracked days the odds ranged between 6% and 42%. The final reading of 6% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Sep 1, 2026” for 17 days, since July 31, 2026. As of August 17, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 6%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 42% to 6%, ranging between 6% and 42% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 17, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.