Final tracked odds
As of October 11, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 58%.
▲ 3 since the previous update. ▼ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 20, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 11, 2026
58%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 10 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 55% | 58% | ▲ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | 58% |
| 2026-10-10 | 55% |
| 2026-10-08 | 64% |
| 2026-10-07 | 64% |
| 2026-10-06 | 64% |
| 2026-10-05 | 63% |
| 2026-10-03 | 62% |
| 2026-10-02 | 64% |
| 2026-08-01 | 56% |
| 2026-07-26 | 32% |
| 2026-07-25 | 32% |
| 2026-07-24 | 28% |
| 2026-07-23 | 28% |
| 2026-07-22 | 28% |
| 2026-07-21 | 26% |
| 2026-07-20 | 26% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 11, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 58%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 16 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 26% on July 20, 2026 to 58% on October 11, 2026 — a change of 32 points.
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 16 tracked days the odds ranged between 26% and 64%. The final reading of 58% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026” for 16 days, since July 20, 2026. As of October 11, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 58%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 26% to 58%, ranging between 26% and 64% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 11, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.