Final tracked odds
As of August 19, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 6%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since August 13, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 19, 2026
6%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 17 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 6% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | 6% |
| 2026-08-17 | 6% |
| 2026-08-16 | 6% |
| 2026-08-15 | 6% |
| 2026-08-14 | 6% |
| 2026-08-13 | 6% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 19, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026 — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 6 tracked days the odds held near 6%, ending at 6% on August 19, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026” for 6 days, since August 13, 2026. As of August 19, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 6%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 6% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 19, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.