Final tracked odds
As of October 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 6%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since August 13, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 6, 2026
6%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 6% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | 6% |
| 2026-10-05 | 8% |
| 2026-10-04 | 8% |
| 2026-10-03 | 6% |
| 2026-10-02 | 6% |
| 2026-10-01 | 6% |
| 2026-09-30 | 6% |
| 2026-09-29 | 6% |
| 2026-09-28 | 8% |
| 2026-09-27 | 8% |
| 2026-09-26 | 8% |
| 2026-09-25 | 8% |
| 2026-09-24 | 8% |
| 2026-09-23 | 8% |
| 2026-09-22 | 8% |
| 2026-09-21 | 8% |
| 2026-09-20 | 8% |
| 2026-09-19 | 8% |
| 2026-09-18 | 6% |
| 2026-09-17 | 6% |
| 2026-09-16 | 6% |
| 2026-09-15 | 6% |
| 2026-09-14 | 6% |
| 2026-09-13 | 6% |
| 2026-09-12 | 6% |
| 2026-09-11 | 6% |
| 2026-09-10 | 6% |
| 2026-09-09 | 6% |
| 2026-09-08 | 6% |
| 2026-09-07 | 6% |
| 2026-09-06 | 6% |
| 2026-09-05 | 6% |
| 2026-09-04 | 6% |
| 2026-09-03 | 6% |
| 2026-09-02 | 6% |
| 2026-09-01 | 6% |
| 2026-08-19 | 6% |
| 2026-08-17 | 6% |
| 2026-08-16 | 6% |
| 2026-08-15 | 6% |
| 2026-08-14 | 6% |
| 2026-08-13 | 6% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026 — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 42 tracked days the odds held near 6%, ending at 6% on October 6, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026” for 42 days, since August 13, 2026. As of October 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 6%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 6% to 6%, ranging between 6% and 8% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 6, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.