Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 6%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Oct 1, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since August 28, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
6%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 1 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 4% | 6% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Before Oct 1, 2026 |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 6% |
| 2026-09-01 | 4% |
| 2026-08-31 | 5% |
| 2026-08-30 | 4% |
| 2026-08-29 | 4% |
| 2026-08-28 | 8% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Oct 1, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Oct 1, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 8% on August 28, 2026 to 6% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Oct 1, 2026” for 6 days, since August 28, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 6%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 8% to 6%, ranging between 4% and 8% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.