Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.1%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, and lose Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
Everything Else · tracked since October 31, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
0.1%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 31 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.4% | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-31 | 0.4% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, and lose Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, and lose Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas” for 2 days, since October 31, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.1%. The chance for a yes has held near 0.4% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.