Today’s odds
As of September 2, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 31%.
▲ 3 since the previous update. ▲ 16 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since August 28, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
31%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 1 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 28% | 31% | ▲ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Before Dec 1, 2026 |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | 31% |
| 2026-09-01 | 28% |
| 2026-08-31 | 28% |
| 2026-08-30 | 26% |
| 2026-08-29 | 16% |
| 2026-08-28 | 16% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of September 2, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 31%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 16% on August 28, 2026 to 31% on September 2, 2026 — a change of 15 points.
- Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 16% and 31%. The current reading of 31% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026” for 6 days, since August 28, 2026. As of September 2, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 31%. The chance for a yes has risen from 16% to 31%, ranging between 16% and 31% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.