Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.1%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?
Everything Else · tracked since July 20, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
0.1%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-11 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-10 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-09 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-08 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-07 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-06 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-05 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-04 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-03 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-02 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-01 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-30 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-29 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-28 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-27 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-26 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-25 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-24 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-23 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-22 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-21 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-19 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-18 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-17 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-16 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-15 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-14 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-12 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-11 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-10 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-09 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-04 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-03 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-02 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-01 | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-19 | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-18 | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-17 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-16 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-15 | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-14 | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-13 | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-11 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-10 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-09 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-08 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-07 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-06 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-05 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-04 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-03 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-02 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-01 | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-20 | 0.1% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 56 tracked days the odds held near 0.1%, ending at 0.1% on October 12, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record” for 56 days, since July 20, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.1%. The chance for a yes has held near 0.1% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.