Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?

Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 22% on July 11, 2026 to 0.1% on August 3, 2026 — a change of 22 points.

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?

Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.1% and 22%. The current reading of 0.1% sits at the bottom of that range.

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since July 11, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET

0.1%

Today’s odds

As of August 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.1%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 21 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Aug 2	Today	Move
Yes	0.1%	0.1%	—

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-08-03	0.1%
2026-08-02	0.1%
2026-08-01	0.1%
2026-07-11	22%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026 — what are the odds?: As of August 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?: Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 22% on July 11, 2026 to 0.1% on August 3, 2026 — a change of 22 points.
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?: Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.1% and 22%. The current reading of 0.1% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026” for 4 days, since July 11, 2026. As of August 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.1%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 22% to 0.1%, ranging between 0.1% and 22% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.