Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 14%.
▼ 6 since the previous update. ▼ 10 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before January 1, 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since October 6, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
14%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 7 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before January 1, 2027 | 20% | 14% | ▼ 6 |
Full history table
| Date | Before January 1, 2027 |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 14% |
| 2026-10-07 | 20% |
| 2026-10-06 | 23% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before January 1, 2027 — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 14%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before January 1, 2027 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 23% on October 6, 2026 to 14% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 9 points.
- Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before January 1, 2027 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 14% and 23%. The current reading of 14% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before January 1, 2027” for 3 days, since October 6, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 14%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 23% to 14%, ranging between 14% and 23% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.