Final tracked odds
As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 14%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since August 1, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 30, 2026
14%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 29 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 14% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 14% |
| 2026-09-29 | 15% |
| 2026-09-28 | 8% |
| 2026-09-27 | 8% |
| 2026-09-26 | 9% |
| 2026-09-25 | 9% |
| 2026-09-24 | 9% |
| 2026-09-23 | 10% |
| 2026-09-22 | 9% |
| 2026-09-21 | 9% |
| 2026-09-20 | 9% |
| 2026-09-19 | 8% |
| 2026-09-18 | 9% |
| 2026-09-17 | 9% |
| 2026-09-16 | 9% |
| 2026-09-15 | 8% |
| 2026-09-14 | 7% |
| 2026-09-13 | 7% |
| 2026-09-12 | 8% |
| 2026-09-11 | 7% |
| 2026-09-10 | 7% |
| 2026-09-09 | 6% |
| 2026-09-08 | 7% |
| 2026-09-07 | 7% |
| 2026-09-06 | 10% |
| 2026-09-05 | 15% |
| 2026-09-04 | 15% |
| 2026-09-03 | 15% |
| 2026-09-02 | 15% |
| 2026-09-01 | 15% |
| 2026-08-18 | 23% |
| 2026-08-17 | 23% |
| 2026-08-16 | 23% |
| 2026-08-15 | 25% |
| 2026-08-14 | 23% |
| 2026-08-13 | 21% |
| 2026-08-12 | 22% |
| 2026-08-11 | 22% |
| 2026-08-10 | 24% |
| 2026-08-09 | 18% |
| 2026-08-08 | 17% |
| 2026-08-07 | 18% |
| 2026-08-06 | 29% |
| 2026-08-05 | 31% |
| 2026-08-04 | 30% |
| 2026-08-03 | 30% |
| 2026-08-02 | 32% |
| 2026-08-01 | 32% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 30, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 14%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 48 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 32% on August 1, 2026 to 14% on September 30, 2026 — a change of 18 points.
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 48 tracked days the odds ranged between 6% and 32%. The final reading of 14% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027” for 48 days, since August 1, 2026. As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 14%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 32% to 14%, ranging between 6% and 32% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 30, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.