Today’s odds
As of August 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 29%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since August 1, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
29%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 31% | 29% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | 29% |
| 2026-08-05 | 31% |
| 2026-08-04 | 30% |
| 2026-08-03 | 30% |
| 2026-08-02 | 32% |
| 2026-08-01 | 32% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027 — what are the odds?
- As of August 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 29%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 32% on August 1, 2026 to 29% on August 6, 2026 — a change of 3 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027” for 6 days, since August 1, 2026. As of August 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 29%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 32% to 29%, ranging between 29% and 32% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.