Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 4%.
▼ 5 since the previous update. ▼ 6 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before November 1, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since October 6, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
4%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 7 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before November 1, 2026 | 10% | 4% | ▼ 5 |
Full history table
| Date | Before November 1, 2026 |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 4% |
| 2026-10-07 | 10% |
| 2026-10-06 | 10% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before November 1, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before November 1, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 10% on October 6, 2026 to 4% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before November 1, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 4% and 10%. The current reading of 4% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before November 1, 2026” for 3 days, since October 6, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 4%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 10% to 4%, ranging between 4% and 10% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.