Today’s odds
As of November 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 88%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Everything Else · tracked since November 4, 2026 · last updated 3:14 PM ET
88%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 4 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90% | 88% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | 88% |
| 2026-11-04 | 90% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record — what are the odds?
- As of November 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 88%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 90% on November 4, 2026 to 88% on November 5, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will 2026 be the hottest year on record” for 2 days, since November 4, 2026. As of November 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 88%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 90% to 88% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.