Today’s odds
As of August 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 18%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
18%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 21% | 18% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | 18% |
| 2026-08-02 | 21% |
| 2026-08-01 | 18% |
| 2026-07-31 | 18% |
| 2026-07-30 | 18% |
| 2026-07-29 | 18% |
| 2026-07-28 | 18% |
| 2026-07-27 | 20% |
| 2026-07-24 | 20% |
| 2026-07-23 | 20% |
| 2026-07-22 | 20% |
| 2026-07-21 | 20% |
| 2026-07-20 | 20% |
| 2026-07-16 | 22% |
| 2026-07-15 | 23% |
| 2026-07-13 | 24% |
| 2026-07-12 | 24% |
| 2026-07-11 | 24% |
| 2026-07-10 | 24% |
| 2026-07-09 | 24% |
| 2026-07-08 | 24% |
| 2026-07-07 | 24% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of August 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 18%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 22 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 24% on July 7, 2026 to 18% on August 3, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 22 tracked days the odds ranged between 18% and 24%. The current reading of 18% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026” for 22 days, since July 7, 2026. As of August 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 18%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 24% to 18%, ranging between 18% and 24% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.