Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 1.4%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 12, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
1.4%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.2% | 1.4% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 1.4% |
| 2026-10-11 | 1.2% |
| 2026-10-10 | 1.4% |
| 2026-10-09 | 1.4% |
| 2026-10-08 | 1.2% |
| 2026-10-07 | 1.1% |
| 2026-10-06 | 1.1% |
| 2026-10-05 | 1.1% |
| 2026-10-04 | 1.1% |
| 2026-10-03 | 1.1% |
| 2026-10-02 | 1.4% |
| 2026-10-01 | 1.4% |
| 2026-08-10 | 2% |
| 2026-08-09 | 2% |
| 2026-08-08 | 3% |
| 2026-08-07 | 3% |
| 2026-08-06 | 3% |
| 2026-08-05 | 3% |
| 2026-08-04 | 3% |
| 2026-08-03 | 3% |
| 2026-08-02 | 3% |
| 2026-08-01 | 3% |
| 2026-07-20 | 2% |
| 2026-07-12 | 3% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 1.4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 24 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 3% on July 12, 2026 to 1.4% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026” for 24 days, since July 12, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 1.4%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 3% to 1.4%, ranging between 1.1% and 3% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.