Today’s odds
As of August 7, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 3%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 12, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
3%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 6 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 3% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | 3% |
| 2026-08-06 | 3% |
| 2026-08-05 | 3% |
| 2026-08-04 | 3% |
| 2026-08-03 | 3% |
| 2026-08-02 | 3% |
| 2026-08-01 | 3% |
| 2026-07-20 | 2% |
| 2026-07-12 | 3% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of August 7, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026 — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 9 tracked days the odds held near 3%, ending at 3% on August 7, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026” for 9 days, since July 12, 2026. As of August 7, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 3%. The chance for a yes has held near 3% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.