Final tracked odds
As of August 17, 2026, market-consensus odds make Before Mar 1, 2027 the most likely outcome at 12%.
▼ 15 since the previous update. ▼ 15 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 17, 2026
12%
How the odds have moved
Before Mar 1, 2027Before Feb 1, 2027
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 10 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 28% | 12% | ▼ 15 |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 22% | 8% | ▼ 13 |
Full history table
| Date | Before Mar 1, 2027 | Before Feb 1, 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | 12% | 8% |
| 2026-08-10 | 28% | 22% |
| 2026-08-09 | 34% | 29% |
| 2026-08-08 | 32% | 26% |
| 2026-08-07 | 32% | 28% |
| 2026-08-06 | 29% | 27% |
| 2026-08-05 | 30% | 27% |
| 2026-08-04 | 30% | 28% |
| 2026-08-03 | 31% | 28% |
| 2026-08-02 | 34% | 32% |
| 2026-08-01 | 25% | 24% |
| 2026-07-31 | 19% | 19% |
| 2026-07-30 | 20% | 21% |
| 2026-07-29 | 20% | 18% |
| 2026-07-28 | 26% | 20% |
| 2026-07-27 | 26% | 21% |
| 2026-07-26 | 23% | 23% |
| 2026-07-25 | 24% | — |
| 2026-07-24 | 22% | — |
| 2026-07-23 | 26% | — |
| 2026-07-20 | — | — |
| 2026-07-16 | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | — | — |
| 2026-07-14 | — | — |
| 2026-07-13 | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | — | — |
| 2026-07-11 | — | — |
| 2026-07-10 | — | — |
| 2026-07-09 | — | — |
| 2026-07-08 | — | — |
| 2026-07-07 | — | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 17, 2026, Before Mar 1, 2027 led at 12%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 20 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 26% on July 23, 2026 to 12% on August 17, 2026 — a change of 14 points.
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 20 tracked days the odds ranged between 12% and 34%. The final reading of 12% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year” for 20 days, since July 7, 2026. As of August 17, 2026, Before Mar 1, 2027 leads the field at 12%. The final tracked chance for Before Mar 1, 2027 has fallen from 26% to 12%, ranging between 12% and 34% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 17, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.