Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?
Everything Else · tracked since September 28, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 2% |
| 2026-10-11 | 2% |
| 2026-10-10 | 2% |
| 2026-10-09 | 3% |
| 2026-10-08 | 2% |
| 2026-10-07 | 3% |
| 2026-10-06 | 3% |
| 2026-10-05 | 2% |
| 2026-10-03 | 3% |
| 2026-09-29 | 12% |
| 2026-09-28 | 12% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31 — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 11 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 12% on September 28, 2026 to 2% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 10 points.
- Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 11 tracked days the odds ranged between 2% and 12%. The current reading of 2% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31” for 11 days, since September 28, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 12% to 2%, ranging between 2% and 12% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.