Final tracked odds
As of August 19, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 30%.
▼ 3 since the previous update. ▲ 7 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the USD Settlement Price for the Current Auction of the August 19, 2026 CARB Joint Auction #48 settle at or above the official August 19, 2026 ICE settlement price for the August 2026 California Carbon Allowance Vintage 2026 Future?
Everything Else · tracked since August 18, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 19, 2026
30%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 18 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| CARB ≥ ICE | 32% | 30% | ▼ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | CARB ≥ ICE |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | 30% |
| 2026-08-18 | 32% |
| 2026-08-17 * | 22% |
| 2026-08-16 * | 23% |
| 2026-08-15 * | 23% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the USD Settlement Price for the Current Auction of the August 19, 2026 CARB Joint Auction #48 settle at or above the official August 19, 2026 ICE settlement price for the August 2026 California Carbon Allowance Vintage 2026 Future — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 19, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 30%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the USD Settlement Price for the Current Auction of the August 19, 2026 CARB Joint Auction #48 settle at or above the official August 19, 2026 ICE settlement price for the August 2026 California Carbon Allowance Vintage 2026 Future — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 32% on August 18, 2026 to 30% on August 19, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the USD Settlement Price for the Current Auction of the August 19, 2026 CARB Joint Auction #48 settle at or above the official August 19, 2026 ICE settlement price for the August 2026 California Carbon Allowance Vintage 2026 Future” for 2 days, since August 18, 2026. As of August 19, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 30%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 32% to 30%, ranging between 30% and 32% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 19, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.