Final tracked odds
As of October 11, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 1.0%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 11, 2026
1.0%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 10 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.9% | 1.0% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | 1.0% |
| 2026-10-10 | 0.9% |
| 2026-10-08 | 0.9% |
| 2026-10-05 | 0.9% |
| 2026-10-04 | 0.9% |
| 2026-10-03 | 0.5% |
| 2026-10-02 | 0.4% |
| 2026-10-01 | 0.5% |
| 2026-09-30 | 0.5% |
| 2026-09-29 | 0.5% |
| 2026-09-28 | 0.5% |
| 2026-09-26 | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-25 | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-24 | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-23 | 0.9% |
| 2026-09-22 | 0.6% |
| 2026-09-21 | 0.7% |
| 2026-09-11 | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-10 | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-09 | 0.9% |
| 2026-09-07 | 0.9% |
| 2026-09-04 | 0.9% |
| 2026-09-03 | 1.0% |
| 2026-09-02 | 1.1% |
| 2026-09-01 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-18 | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-17 | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-16 | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-15 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-14 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-13 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-12 | 1.0% |
| 2026-08-11 | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-10 | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-09 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-08 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-07 | 1.0% |
| 2026-08-06 | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-05 | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-04 | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-03 | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-02 | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-01 | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-31 | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-30 | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-29 | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-28 | 0.7% |
| 2026-07-27 | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-25 | 1.0% |
| 2026-07-24 | 1.0% |
| 2026-07-23 | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-22 | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-21 | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-20 | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-16 | 0.8% |
| 2026-07-15 | 0.8% |
| 2026-07-13 | 0.8% |
| 2026-07-12 | 0.8% |
| 2026-07-11 | 0.8% |
| 2026-07-10 | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-09 | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-08 | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-07 | 0.5% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 11, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 1.0%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026 — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 63 tracked days the odds held near 0.5%, ending at 1.0% on October 11, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026” for 63 days, since July 7, 2026. As of October 11, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 1.0%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 0.5% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 11, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.