Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, September 30, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 87%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?

Up. Over the 9 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 66% on September 22, 2026 to 87% on September 30, 2026 — a change of 21 points.

Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 9 tracked days the odds ranged between 66% and 88%. The final reading of 87% sits inside that range.

Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since September 22, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 30, 2026

87%

Final tracked odds

As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 87%.

▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 18 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Sep 29	Today	Move
Yes	86%	87%	▲ 1

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-09-30	87%
2026-09-29	86%
2026-09-28	88%
2026-09-27	86%
2026-09-26	84%
2026-09-25	78%
2026-09-24	72%
2026-09-23	68%
2026-09-22	66%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, September 30, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 87%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?: Up. Over the 9 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 66% on September 22, 2026 to 87% on September 30, 2026 — a change of 21 points.
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 9 tracked days the odds ranged between 66% and 88%. The final reading of 87% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026” for 9 days, since September 22, 2026. As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 87%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 66% to 87%, ranging between 66% and 88% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 30, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.