Final tracked odds
As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 18%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since September 14, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 4, 2026
18%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 18% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 18% |
| 2026-10-03 | 20% |
| 2026-09-30 | 20% |
| 2026-09-29 | 20% |
| 2026-09-28 | 20% |
| 2026-09-27 | 23% |
| 2026-09-26 | 22% |
| 2026-09-25 | 22% |
| 2026-09-24 | 22% |
| 2026-09-23 | 22% |
| 2026-09-22 | 23% |
| 2026-09-21 | 24% |
| 2026-09-19 | 25% |
| 2026-09-18 | 24% |
| 2026-09-17 | 26% |
| 2026-09-16 | 25% |
| 2026-09-15 | 24% |
| 2026-09-14 | 29% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 18%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 18 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 29% on September 14, 2026 to 18% on October 4, 2026 — a change of 11 points.
- Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 18 tracked days the odds ranged between 18% and 29%. The final reading of 18% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026” for 18 days, since September 14, 2026. As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 18%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 29% to 18%, ranging between 18% and 29% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.