The Morning Line

Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET

9%

Today’s odds

As of July 29, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Nashville SC leads at 9%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Nashville SCSeattle Sounders FC
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 13Jul 18Jul 23Jul 29Nashville SC — Jul 7: 8%Nashville SC — Jul 8: 8%Nashville SC — Jul 9: 8%Nashville SC — Jul 10: 8%Nashville SC — Jul 11: 8%Nashville SC — Jul 12: 8%Nashville SC — Jul 13: 8%Nashville SC — Jul 14: 8%Nashville SC — Jul 15: 8%Nashville SC — Jul 16: 8%Nashville SC — Jul 17: 8%Nashville SC — Jul 18: 8%Nashville SC — Jul 19: 8%Nashville SC — Jul 21: 8%Nashville SC — Jul 22: 8%Nashville SC — Jul 23: 9%Nashville SC — Jul 24: 9%Nashville SC — Jul 25: 9%Nashville SC — Jul 26: 9%Nashville SC — Jul 27: 9%Nashville SC — Jul 28: 9%Nashville SC — Jul 29: 9%9%Seattle Sounders FC — Jul 7: 4%Seattle Sounders FC — Jul 8: 4%Seattle Sounders FC — Jul 9: 4%Seattle Sounders FC — Jul 10: 4%Seattle Sounders FC — Jul 12: 4%Seattle Sounders FC — Jul 13: 4%Seattle Sounders FC — Jul 15: 4%Seattle Sounders FC — Jul 16: 4%Seattle Sounders FC — Jul 20: 4%Seattle Sounders FC — Jul 21: 4%Seattle Sounders FC — Jul 22: 4%Seattle Sounders FC — Jul 23: 4%Seattle Sounders FC — Jul 24: 4%Seattle Sounders FC — Jul 25: 4%Seattle Sounders FC — Jul 26: 4%Seattle Sounders FC — Jul 27: 4%Seattle Sounders FC — Jul 28: 4%Seattle Sounders FC — Jul 29: 4%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 28TodayMove
Nashville SC9%9%—
Seattle Sounders FC4%4%—
Full history table
DateNashville SCSeattle Sounders FC
2026-07-299%4%
2026-07-289%4%
2026-07-279%4%
2026-07-269%4%
2026-07-259%4%
2026-07-249%4%
2026-07-239%4%
2026-07-228%4%
2026-07-218%4%
2026-07-20—4%
2026-07-198%—
2026-07-188%—
2026-07-178%—
2026-07-168%4%
2026-07-158%4%
2026-07-148%—
2026-07-138%4%
2026-07-128%4%
2026-07-118%—
2026-07-108%4%
2026-07-098%4%
2026-07-088%4%
2026-07-078%4%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup — what are the odds?
As of July 29, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 9%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup — how much have the odds move?
Barely. Across 22 tracked days the odds held near 8%, ending at 9% on July 29, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup” for 22 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, no outcome clears 10% — Nashville SC leads at 9%. The chance for the leading outcome has risen from 8% to 9% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

More questions we track

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.