The Morning Line

Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET

7%

Today’s odds

As of October 12, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Philadelphia Union leads at 7%.

▲ 1 since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Philadelphia UnionSt. Louis City SCChicago Fire FCFC DallasSeattle Sounders FC
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 15Aug 6Aug 28Sep 20Oct 12Philadelphia Union — Oct 1: 5%Philadelphia Union — Oct 12: 7%7%St. Louis City SC — Jul 16: 0.4%St. Louis City SC — Oct 12: 7%Chicago Fire FC — Jul 15: 6%Chicago Fire FC — Oct 12: 5%FC Dallas — Jul 15: 0.5%FC Dallas — Oct 12: 5%Seattle Sounders FC — Jul 15: 4%Seattle Sounders FC — Oct 12: 2%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeOct 11TodayMove
Philadelphia Union6%7%▲ 1
St. Louis City SC—7%—
Chicago Fire FC5%5%—
FC Dallas—5%—
Seattle Sounders FC2%2%—
Toronto FC—0.1%—
Atlanta United FC—0.1%—
Full history table
DatePhiladelphia UnionSt. Louis City SCChicago Fire FCFC DallasSeattle Sounders FCToronto FCAtlanta United FC
2026-10-127%7%5%5%2%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-116%—5%—2%——
2026-10-105%6%5%—2%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-095%6%5%5%2%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-084%6%5%5%2%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-076%6%5%5%2%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-066%6%5%5%2%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-057%6%5%5%1.5%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-04——5%—1.4%——
2026-10-036%—5%—2%——
2026-10-027%6%5%5%2%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-015%5%5%5%2%0.1%0.1%
2026-09-30————2%——
2026-09-29————2%——
2026-09-28————3%——
2026-09-27————2%——
2026-09-26————0.1%——
2026-09-25————0.6%——
2026-09-24————0.6%——
2026-09-23————0.6%——
2026-09-22————0.7%——
2026-09-21————0.1%——
2026-09-20————0.6%——
2026-09-19————0.9%——
2026-09-18————0.9%——
2026-09-17————0.9%——
2026-09-16————0.9%——
2026-09-15————0.9%——
2026-09-14————1.2%——
2026-09-13————1.4%——
2026-09-12————1.3%——
2026-09-11————1.3%——
2026-09-10————1.3%——
2026-09-09————1.3%——
2026-09-08————1.3%——
2026-09-07————2%——
2026-09-06————2%——
2026-09-05————2%——
2026-09-04————2%——
2026-09-03————3%——
2026-09-02————2%——
2026-09-01————3%——
2026-08-31———————
2026-08-30———————
2026-08-29———————
2026-08-28———————
2026-08-27————0.5%——
2026-08-26————0.8%——
2026-08-25————0.8%——
2026-08-24————0.8%——
2026-08-23————1.1%——
2026-08-22————4%——
2026-08-21————4%——
2026-08-20————4%——
2026-08-19————4%——
2026-08-18————4%——
2026-08-17————4%——
2026-08-16————4%——
2026-08-15————4%——
2026-08-14————4%——
2026-08-13————4%——
2026-08-12————4%——
2026-08-11————4%——
2026-08-10————4%——
2026-08-09————4%——
2026-08-08——5%—4%——
2026-08-07——5%—4%——
2026-08-06——5%—4%——
2026-08-05——5%—4%——
2026-08-04——6%—4%——
2026-08-03——6%—4%——
2026-08-02——6%—4%——
2026-08-01——6%—4%——
2026-07-31————4%——
2026-07-30————4%——
2026-07-29————4%——
2026-07-28————4%——
2026-07-27————4%——
2026-07-26———0.7%4%——
2026-07-25———0.7%4%——
2026-07-24————4%——
2026-07-23————4%——
2026-07-22———0.6%4%——
2026-07-21————4%——
2026-07-20————4%——
2026-07-19—0.4%—————
2026-07-18———————
2026-07-17—0.4%—————
2026-07-16—0.4%—0.7%4%——
2026-07-15——6%0.5%4%——
2026-07-14—0.4%5%0.5%———
2026-07-13——4%0.5%4%——
2026-07-12——4%0.5%4%——
2026-07-11—0.4%4%————
2026-07-10—0.4%4%0.5%4%——
2026-07-09—0.4%4%—4%——
2026-07-08——4%0.5%4%——
2026-07-07—0.4%4%0.5%4%——

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup — what are the odds?
As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 7%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup — have the odds gone up or down?
Up. Over the 11 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 5% on October 1, 2026 to 7% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 2 points.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup” for 11 days, since July 7, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, no outcome clears 10% — Philadelphia Union leads at 7%. The chance for the leading outcome has risen from 5% to 7%, ranging between 4% and 7% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

More questions we track

The Morning Line reports market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. The numbers are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.