The Morning Line

Who will win the 2026 National League Championship Series?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET

2%

Today’s odds

As of July 29, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Pittsburgh Pirates leads at 2%.

Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Pittsburgh PiratesSan Diego PadresNew York MetsCincinnati Reds
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 13Jul 18Jul 23Jul 29Pittsburgh Pirates — Jul 7: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates — Jul 8: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates — Jul 9: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates — Jul 10: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates — Jul 11: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates — Jul 12: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates — Jul 13: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates — Jul 14: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates — Jul 15: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates — Jul 16: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates — Jul 17: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates — Jul 18: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates — Jul 19: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates — Jul 21: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates — Jul 22: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates — Jul 23: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates — Jul 24: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates — Jul 25: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates — Jul 26: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates — Jul 27: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates — Jul 28: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates — Jul 29: 2%2%San Diego Padres — Jul 7: 2%San Diego Padres — Jul 8: 1.2%San Diego Padres — Jul 9: 2%San Diego Padres — Jul 10: 2%San Diego Padres — Jul 11: 2%San Diego Padres — Jul 12: 2%San Diego Padres — Jul 13: 2%San Diego Padres — Jul 14: 2%San Diego Padres — Jul 15: 1.1%San Diego Padres — Jul 16: 0.9%San Diego Padres — Jul 17: 1.0%San Diego Padres — Jul 20: 1.0%San Diego Padres — Jul 21: 1.0%San Diego Padres — Jul 22: 1.0%San Diego Padres — Jul 23: 0.9%San Diego Padres — Jul 24: 0.9%San Diego Padres — Jul 25: 0.9%San Diego Padres — Jul 26: 1.0%San Diego Padres — Jul 27: 0.8%San Diego Padres — Jul 28: 0.9%San Diego Padres — Jul 29: 0.9%New York Mets — Jul 12: 1.1%New York Mets — Jul 13: 1.1%New York Mets — Jul 15: 1.1%New York Mets — Jul 20: 0.9%New York Mets — Jul 21: 0.9%New York Mets — Jul 22: 0.9%New York Mets — Jul 23: 0.9%New York Mets — Jul 24: 0.9%New York Mets — Jul 27: 0.2%New York Mets — Jul 29: 0.2%Cincinnati Reds — Jul 7: 0.2%Cincinnati Reds — Jul 8: 0.2%Cincinnati Reds — Jul 9: 0.2%Cincinnati Reds — Jul 10: 0.2%Cincinnati Reds — Jul 11: 0.2%Cincinnati Reds — Jul 12: 0.2%Cincinnati Reds — Jul 13: 0.2%Cincinnati Reds — Jul 14: 0.2%Cincinnati Reds — Jul 15: 0.2%Cincinnati Reds — Jul 16: 0.1%Cincinnati Reds — Jul 17: 0.1%Cincinnati Reds — Jul 20: 0.1%Cincinnati Reds — Jul 21: 0.1%Cincinnati Reds — Jul 22: 0.1%Cincinnati Reds — Jul 23: 0.1%Cincinnati Reds — Jul 24: 0.1%Cincinnati Reds — Jul 25: 0.1%Cincinnati Reds — Jul 26: 0.1%Cincinnati Reds — Jul 27: 0.1%Cincinnati Reds — Jul 28: 0.1%Cincinnati Reds — Jul 29: 0.1%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 28TodayMove
Pittsburgh Pirates2%2%—
San Diego Padres0.9%0.9%—
New York Mets—0.2%—
Cincinnati Reds0.1%0.1%—
Full history table
DatePittsburgh PiratesSan Diego PadresNew York MetsCincinnati Reds
2026-07-292%0.9%0.2%0.1%
2026-07-282%0.9%—0.1%
2026-07-272%0.8%0.2%0.1%
2026-07-262%1.0%—0.1%
2026-07-252%0.9%—0.1%
2026-07-242%0.9%0.9%0.1%
2026-07-232%0.9%0.9%0.1%
2026-07-222%1.0%0.9%0.1%
2026-07-212%1.0%0.9%0.1%
2026-07-20—1.0%0.9%0.1%
2026-07-193%———
2026-07-183%———
2026-07-173%1.0%—0.1%
2026-07-163%0.9%—0.1%
2026-07-153%1.1%1.1%0.2%
2026-07-143%2%—0.2%
2026-07-133%2%1.1%0.2%
2026-07-123%2%1.1%0.2%
2026-07-113%2%—0.2%
2026-07-103%2%—0.2%
2026-07-093%2%—0.2%
2026-07-083%1.2%—0.2%
2026-07-073%2%—0.2%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will win the 2026 National League Championship Series — what are the odds?
As of July 29, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will win the 2026 National League Championship Series — how much have the odds move?
Barely. Across 22 tracked days the odds held near 3%, ending at 2% on July 29, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2026 National League Championship Series” for 22 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, no outcome clears 10% — Pittsburgh Pirates leads at 2%. The chance for the leading outcome has held near 3% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

More questions we track

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.