| 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 1.2% |
| 5 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 4% |
| ATP Shanghai: Carlos Alcaraz wins? | Tennis | Toss-up | 44% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 5% |
| Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 8% |
| Cup Series: Kyle Larson is awarded pole position? | NASCAR | Unlikely | 18% |
| Ebenezer Rotten Tomatoes score? | Culture | Above 20 | 94% |
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 12% |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 4% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| Hexed Rotten Tomatoes score? | Culture | Above 55 | 68% |
| Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 8% |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 4% |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 3% |
| Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 33% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 5% |
| NATO article 5 before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 5% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026? | Everything Else | Likely | 82% |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? | Everything Else | Likely | 63% |
| Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 4% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? | Everything Else | Likely | 87% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Everything Else | Likely | 82% |
| Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 7% |
| Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 7% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Politics | Unlikely | 3% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | Politics | Unlikely | 3% |
| SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| Sense and Sensibility Rotten Tomatoes score? | Culture | Above 77 | 46% |
| Snow in Seattle in Dec 2026? | Everything Else | Above 2 inches | 22% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 14% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| Stripe IPO before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 3% |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 4% |
| US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 15% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | Sports | Unlikely | 2% |
| USDC depeg by December 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Everything Else | Toss-up | 58% |
| Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Everything Else | Likely | 96% |
| What will be the top AI model on Oct 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Likely | 76% |
| Who will be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | Sports | Unlikely | 0.5% |
| Who will be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion? | Bundesliga | Wide open | 3% |
| Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Everything Else | Wide open | 2% |
| Who will be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Everything Else | Wide open | 0.1% |
| Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Politics | Wide open | 0.1% |
| Who will be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | Politics | Wide open | 2% |
| Who will be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | Politics | Wide open | 1.4% |
| Who will be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Politics | Unlikely | 2% |
| Who will be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Culture | Wide open | 0.1% |
| Who will be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | UFC | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Who will be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | UFC | Wide open | 0.1% |
| Who will be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | UFC | Wide open | 0.8% |
| Who will be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | UFC | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Who will win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? | Everything Else | Wide open | 0.1% |
| Who will win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | Politics | Likely | 78% |
| Who will win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 37% |
| Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Everything Else | Wide open | 0.1% |
| Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | Flávio Bolsonaro | 86% |
| Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup? | Everything Else | Wide open | 7% |
| Who will win the 2026 NFL MVP? | NFL | Unlikely | 20% |
| Who will win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? | Everything Else | Wide open | 0.5% |
| Who will win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.4% |
| Who will win the 2026 San Francisco Board of Supervisors District 8 election? | Politics | Gary McCoy | 77% |
| Who will win the 2026 World Series? | MLB | Unlikely | 34% |
| Who will win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | Premier League | Unlikely | 0.4% |
| Who will win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.2% |
| Who will win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | Champions League | Real Madrid | 10% |
| Who will win the 2027 French presidential election? | Politics | Wide open | 0.7% |
| Who will win the 2027 NBA Finals? | NBA | New York Knicks | 12% |
| Who will win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | NFL | Wide open | 7% |
| Who will win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? | NFL | Unlikely | 6% |
| Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Everything Else | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 18% |
| Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Everything Else | J.D. Vance | 48% |
| Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | JD Vance | 20% |
| Who will win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Politics | Likely | 72% |
| Who will win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Politics | Likely | 70% |
| Who will win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | Politics | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Who will win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | Politics | Wide open | 0.1% |
| Who will win the Texas governor race in 2026? | Politics | Unlikely | 22% |
| Wildwood Rotten Tomatoes score? | Culture | Above 92 | 88% |
| Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before December 1, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 10% |
| Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before January 1, 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 14% |
| Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before November 1, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 4% |
| Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.3% |
| Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.4% |
| Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | Everything Else | Toss-up | 54% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | Everything Else | Likely | 82% |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2026 NFC East? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 40% |
| Will Daniil Medvedev win the Daniil Medvedev vs Dalibor Svrcina match by a set score of 2-0? | Tennis | Likely | 68% |
| Will Elisabeth Moss win Best Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? | Culture | Unlikely | 3% |
| Will Godzilla Minus Zero win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? | Culture | Unlikely | 4% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Everything Else | Toss-up | 42% |
| Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.6% |
| Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Toss-up | 58% |
| Will Housewife by Tate McRae debut #1 on the Billboard Hot 100? | Culture | Unlikely | 16% |
| Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 3% |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 3% |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 1.4% |
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 8% |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 1.4% |
| Will Joel Kinnaman win Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? | Culture | Unlikely | 4% |
| Will La Bola Negra be on the list of nominees for Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? | Culture | Unlikely | 28% |
| Will La Bola Negra win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? | Culture | Unlikely | 27% |
| Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.5% |
| Will Melissa Roxburgh win Best Actress in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 8% |
| Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.4% |
| Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Likely | 95% |
| Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| Will Ryan Gosling win Best Actor at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Everything Else | Toss-up | 44% |
| Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Will Ted win Best Comedy Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 4% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | Economy | Likely | 74% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election be between 0% and 3%? | Politics | Unlikely | 21% |
| Will the President try to fire the Lisa Cook as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Nov 1, 2026? | Politics | Unlikely | 14% |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Politics | Unlikely | 2% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 18% |
| Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 1.4% |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 3% |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.2% |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.4% |
| Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 3% |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 3% |
| Will Tim Allen win Best Actor in a Comedy Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 5% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 2% |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 4% |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 6% |
| Will Woman Unknown win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? | Culture | Unlikely | 2% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 0.1% |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | Everything Else | Unlikely | 3% |
| You Can See Everything Rotten Tomatoes score? | Culture | Unlikely | 23% |