Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027 — what are the odds?

As of August 8, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 12%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027 — have the odds gone up or down?

Down. Over the 9 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 16% on July 15, 2026 to 12% on August 8, 2026 — a change of 4 points.

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027 — what are the highest and lowest odds?

Over 9 tracked days the odds ranged between 12% and 19%. The current reading of 12% sits at the bottom of that range.

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Politics · tracked since July 15, 2026 · last updated 10:19 AM ET

12%

Today’s odds

As of August 8, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 12%.

▼ 3 since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Jul 24	Today	Move
Yes	16%	12%	▼ 3

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-08-08	12%
2026-07-24	16%
2026-07-22	16%
2026-07-21	17%
2026-07-20	16%
2026-07-18	19%
2026-07-17	18%
2026-07-16	18%
2026-07-15	16%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027 — what are the odds?: As of August 8, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 12%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027 — have the odds gone up or down?: Down. Over the 9 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 16% on July 15, 2026 to 12% on August 8, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027 — what are the highest and lowest odds?: Over 9 tracked days the odds ranged between 12% and 19%. The current reading of 12% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027” for 9 days, since July 15, 2026. As of August 8, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 12%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 16% to 12%, ranging between 12% and 19% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.